Spotlight: European Real Estate Logistics Census

Executive summary

The 2025 European Real Estate Logistics Census – jointly produced by Savills, Brookfield Properties, and Analytiqa – captures a sector recalibrating amid macroeconomic turbulence. While volatility remains a defining feature of the landscape, the logistics real estate market continues to demonstrate structural resilience. Pan-European warehouse take-up declined by a modest 6.25% in H1 2025 relative to pre-Covid norms, and although investment volumes fell 22% from H2 2024, they remain 11% above long-term averages – underscoring sustained investor conviction.

Logistics assets now account for 22% of total capital deployed into European real estate, up from 13% in 2018. Sentiment is mixed: 40% of respondents view current conditions as more favourable than last year, down from 52% in 2024. Developers are the most bullish (54%), followed by investors (46%), and occupiers (37%). Within the occupier cohort, 3PLs are notably cautious – likely a function of delayed exposure to macroeconomic shocks.

Expansion remains on the agenda, albeit deferred. While 57% of occupiers have scaled back or postponed growth plans, only 4% have paused indefinitely. Retailers are the most likely to proceed as planned, and 47% of occupiers expect their warehouse footprint to grow over the next three years. This sits against a backdrop of a shrinking development pipeline, which may compress vacancy rates and drive future demand.

Cost pressures – particularly energy and labour – continue to dominate occupier concerns, followed by rent inflation and power supply constraints. These dynamics are shaping preferences for mid-box units (5,000–9,999 sq m), flexible specifications, and energy-efficient design. Expansion interest is strongest in Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands, with rising appetite for CEE markets such as Poland and the Czech Republic.

ESG regulation has emerged as the most cited structural shift, with 88% of occupiers rating it as important. AI adoption is accelerating: 36% are already investing in predictive analytics, and 47% plan further investment. In contrast, automation has slipped in priority – likely due to power constraints and capex limitations.

Investors and developers are positioning for recovery. 36% of developers plan speculative builds, and 56% of investors expect volume growth. However, a mismatch persists between the unit sizes developers are delivering and those occupiers are targeting. Investors are narrowing their geographic focus, favouring core markets such as Germany, the Netherlands, and France.

The Census points to a sector at a strategic inflection point – balancing short-term caution with long-term transformation. ESG, AI, and infrastructure will be central to shaping the next phase of European logistics real estate.

With thanks to our partners:

Contents

• Introduction
• Occupiers are still looking to expand, albeit at a measured rate
• Where are occupiers looking to expand, and what do they need?
• ​Cost pressures and power are the greatest concerns for occupiers
• Game-changers: ESG is the most important potential factor
• Game-changers: EV charging, AI, and automation are driving power concerns
• Developers are looking to develop more this year
• Investors are more positive, but focused on core markets
• Investors are looking ahead. Will occupiers catch up?
• Summary

Introduction

With the first half of 2025 being characterised by significant volatility and uncertainty in global trade terms and conditions, it comes as no surprise that warehouse take-up levels have been similarly impacted. Indeed, at a pan-European level, take-up for the first half of the year is down, a relatively modest 6.25% when compared with the pre-Covid average of 12.8 million sq m.

Turning to the investment market, after a strong finish to 2024, any momentum that had been building during the first quarter of 2025 was dramatically impeded by the ramifications of President Trump's announcements on 2 April, otherwise known as ‘Liberation Day’. Whilst the dust is starting to settle, it comes as no surprise that investment volumes reached €18.9 billion in H1 2025, 22% lower than H2 2024 and 4% lower than H1 2024, albeit this remains 11% higher than the pre-Covid average. This demonstrates the continued resilience of the sector in global investors’ eyes. Indeed, investor appetite for logistics assets remains well above trend, accounting for 22% of total capital deployed into European real estate, considerably higher than the 13% of the total market back in 2018.

With market conditions shifting rapidly, understanding occupier and investor intentions and gaining insights into their key challenges and opportunities is crucial. Savills and Brookfield Properties are delighted to share the results of our fifth annual European Real Estate Logistics Census. Global supply chain consultancy Analytiqa undertook the Census and data collection over the summer of 2025. In total, 715 key players (our largest sample yet) in the sector took part, comprising occupiers (70%), investors (13%), developers (7%), and a further 10% comprising landowners, asset managers, agents, and consultants. Occupiers were further split into manufacturers (63%), logistics (20%), and retailers (17%).

Considering the turmoil and uncertainty injected into the market by the Trump administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in early April, respondents were surprisingly optimistic about current market conditions. When asked how they viewed market conditions compared to the previous year, 40% answered ‘Somewhat more favourable’ (32%) or ‘Much more favourable’ (8%), down from 52% in 2024. A further 40% answered ‘The same’, which is in and of itself a positive considering the upheaval in global trade this year.

Occupiers (37% more favourable) remain more cautious than developers (54%) and investors (46%). Looking more closely at occupiers, 3PLs were the least confident (23%) of our occupier groups, with most reporting no change (63%). Given that 3PL's business model relies on contracts from other companies, this may reflect an expectation that the effect of recent shocks has yet to be passed on to their businesses. Considering the expected impact of rising effective tariff rates for manufacturers, it is positive to see 41% report improving market conditions, with retailers being slightly more positive again at 42%.

Occupiers are still looking to expand, albeit at a measured rate

The impact of weak economic growth and heightened global uncertainty is reflected in occupiers’ expansion plans. Of our sample, 57% of occupiers have been compelled to scale back or delay expansion plans due to the current economic conditions. Crucially, however, of the 57%, only 4% of respondents have put their plans on hold indefinitely. By comparison, in 2024, 69% of occupiers had delayed their expansion plans and 6% had put them on hold indefinitely, so this represents a moderate improvement amongst occupiers. Additionally, 21% of occupiers stated that the macroenvironment has not impacted their plans, up from 18% the previous year. The most common response was a delay of one to two years (27%), with the third-highest response being a delay of two to five years (19%).

Retailers were the most likely to be proceeding as planned with their expansion plans (32%), with 27% scaling back or delaying their plans by one to two years. Manufacturers and retailers were more likely to have delayed plans by one to two years (34% and 31%, respectively) or by two to five years (20% and 22%, respectively).

It is positive to see 41% reporting improving market conditions, with retailers being slightly more positive again at 42%.

What impact is this expected to have on occupier real estate requirements in the short and medium term?

• Over the next twelve months, 41% of occupiers expect to see their warehouse space needs increase, with a further 52% expecting them to stay the same.

• Over the next one to three years, the share of occupiers expecting to see their need for space grow increases to 47%, with another 47% expecting their needs to remain the same.

This could signal a shift amongst occupiers compared to 2024, when 70% signalled they would need the same amount of space over the next twelve months. Notably, while retailers see their requirements growing in the next twelve months (43%), just 31% of 3PLs expect to need more space in the near term. This changes dramatically in the one-to-three-year and three years+ horizons, with 51% and 53% of 3PLs, respectively, expecting to see their footprints grow. This may reflect our point from the previous section: occupiers are waiting for knock-on impacts of the economic situation to affect them on a lag.

Savills European Pipeline Index indicates that the development pipeline across Europe has fallen by 28% since its peak in Q1 2023, which, in combination with rising requirements amongst occupiers, should put downward pressure on vacancy rates across Europe over the medium to long term. Looking to the UK market, which typically precedes European trends by about three-quarters, the speculative development pipeline has contracted substantially from its peak in Q4 2022, falling by 58% to current levels in Q2 2025.

Where are occupiers looking to expand, and what do they need?

Expansion plans favour core Western European markets. Germany and France lead the way with 26% and 20% of occupiers, respectively, who expect to take more space in the next three years, planning to do so in these countries. Spain and the Netherlands are the next two most popular locations, marginally ahead of Belgium and Italy.

Notably, when we compare occupiers who are already active in each country to new entrants, of the markets where more than 4% of respondents indicated interest in entering a market, the greatest numbers of new entrants were in the Czech Republic (68%), Belgium (35%), and Poland (31%). This may suggest that occupiers are increasingly looking more favourably at the CEE markets, whether for nearshoring purposes or a final end-user market.

When asked about expansion plans, the majority of occupiers (65%) will be looking for mid-box units of 5,000–9,999 sq m. A further 16% are considering mega-box units with floor sizes above 40,000 sq m. Big-box demand has fallen sharply from 54% in 2024 to 13% in 2025. Urban logistics also saw its share fall by 2 percentage points (pp) to 5% of responses.

Looking more closely at individual warehouse features that matter to occupiers, two key trends are emerging. Firstly, on a physical level, building height (53%) was the most important feature, well ahead of energy efficiency (35%), which was second. Beyond building height, the third highest response was capacity for expansion (30%). Occupiers have a clear preference for space that can be adapted to fit their needs, whether through additional height, capacity for expansion, or scope to include a mezzanine level (16%).

Energy efficiency, power resilience/energy availability (23%), and Solar PV (19%) also scored highly. As we note below, in terms of pressures and concerns, power supply has continued to rise as a major factor for occupiers. It is therefore not unexpected that occupiers are seeking solutions via their real estate strategies. Indeed, with 24% of occupiers looking for scope to include automation/advanced technologies in their warehouses and a further 14% looking for EV charging, it’s unsurprising to see power requirements continue to rise.

​Cost pressures and power are the greatest concerns for occupiers

Cost pressures are always occupiers' number one concern, and this year is no different. Energy and labour (38%) and rents (37%) are the top issues. Although inflationary pressures are now abating, occupiers are still feeling their effects and remain very cost-conscious.

3PLs have been particularly impacted, which likely reflects the need for operational efficiency within the 3PL business model and the nature of competition within the market, which centres on cost-effective solutions for clients. Energy and labour cost pressures (73%) and rising rents (67%) were a significantly larger concern than for manufacturers (28% and 26%, respectively).

While access to labour at logistics facilities remains an issue, highlighted by 22% of respondents, down from 24% in 2024, it has been replaced as the biggest issue after costs by power supply to logistics buildings, which rose to a quarter of all occupiers.

Managing changes in international trade, which only ranks sixth on our list, has seen a notable increase since 2024, from 14% to 17%, presumably because of the increase in tariffs exporters to the US face. This is more pronounced amongst manufacturers (24%) and was the fourth most common response amongst this respondent base.

Game-changers: ESG is the most important potential factor

Looking ahead, we asked occupiers to identify potential ‘game-changers’ for their logistics real estate. The responses largely mirrored those from 2024, with more stringent ESG targets and regulations once again topping the list. At the other end of the spectrum, re/nearshoring scored lowest at 58% – though notably, this rose to 68% among manufacturers, underscoring sector-specific priorities around securing their supply chains.

With 88% of occupiers rating it as important or very important, ESG remains the dominant concern. Regulatory uncertainty continues to pose a significant downside risk, and EU regulations present a moving target. Occupiers are increasingly aware of the potential knock-on effects on both operations and real estate strategy. This can be seen in how the gap between occupier types has narrowed since 2024. Last year, 3PLs were significantly more concerned than manufacturers and retailers. This year, however, concern is nearly universal:

• 3PLs: 92%
• Retailers: 91%
• Manufacturers: 86%

When asked how they plan to adapt their logistics networks, better ESG credentials emerged as the most common response (30%).

Across their existing estates, occupiers have already responded in two key ways. When asked about the ESG/sustainability measures they have implemented over the last twelve months, waste reduction/recycling (53%) scored the highest, likely representing ‘low-hanging fruit’ when it came to improving ESG scores within their operations. Beyond this, the second highest was energy efficiency and waste reduction measures, which likely represent easy solutions with measurable ESG and cost benefits. The second most integrated solution by occupiers was energy efficiency and demand reduction measures (50%), reflecting a cost-effective response to sustained margin pressures over the past three years. In contrast, only 32% have invested in on-site renewable energy and storage – down from third to fourth place in 2025 – overtaken by private car EV charging (34%).

Game-changers: EV charging, AI, and automation are driving power concerns

ESG concerns are driving EV charging integration

The rise of private EV charging prompts a key question: why are occupiers prioritising this over fleet charging? While both saw increased uptake (private EV up from 23% to 34%, HGV/LGV charging from 13% to 16%), the disparity suggests ongoing uncertainty around the green transport transition.

Much of this hinges on OEM technology choices. While EVs are gaining traction for last-mile delivery, occupiers remain cautious about investing in dedicated infrastructure for HGVs and LGVs. Grid capacity and local power availability continue to be major constraints.

Yet momentum is building. EV HGVs now offer ranges of up to 500km, and operators such as DFDS, Amazon, and Kuehne + Nagel are deploying them at scale. EU-mandated corridors and megawatt-scale charging infrastructure are accelerating adoption, positioning EV HGVs as a viable strategic asset.

Electric/Hydrogen HGVs were ranked as the third most important potential game changer. EV vehicles also ranked third in terms of technologies that occupiers have already invested in or plan to invest in. Furthermore, reducing reliance on CO₂-intensive transport was the most common supply chain priority over the next three years. These ambitions, however, appear misaligned with current ESG actions. While EV adoption is progressing, particularly for smaller freight, occupiers remain hesitant to invest in infrastructure – likely due to competing demands on power capacity and broader uncertainty around future transport technologies.

Greater use of AI is a higher priority than automation

A notable shift has emerged in occupiers’ attitudes toward AI. ‘Greater use of AI’ was identified as a game-changer by 82% of occupiers, making it the second most cited transformative trend. Unlike ESG, where occupier engagement tends to be more reactive, AI is being approached with a high degree of proactivity. It is not only seen as a future disruptor, but it is also being actively adopted. In the past twelve months, 36% of occupiers have invested in predictive optimisation and analytics technologies powered by AI. Looking ahead, 47% plan to invest in these tools over the next two years – highlighting strong momentum in adoption. Interestingly, more occupiers have already invested in these technologies than had indicated they would in 2024, suggesting that adoption is accelerating faster than anticipated.

This trend indicates two things: first, that occupiers expect rapid advancements in AI in the near term; and second, that the technology is now mature enough to deliver tangible value within current operating models.

Notably, investment in robotics and advanced automation has actually fallen in rank this year from third to fifth, with 75% of occupiers indicating they thought it could be game-changing. When asked how they intend to evolve their supply chains, 42% of occupiers plan to invest in building-level automation over the next three years.

Technology adoption is driving concerns around power availability

Power remains an issue for occupiers, even if it has fallen in importance compared to last year, as it saw its share of occupiers noting it as a potential game-changer grow from 68% in 2024 to 75%. It is possible that one of the factors constraining occupiers’ ambitions around technology, such as robotics/automation and on-site EV charging, is an insufficient supply of power. This may have pushed occupiers towards more accessible technologies, such as predictive analytics/ optimisation (AI). Another factor may be the cost required to implement certain measures. While automation has become cheaper in recent years, it remains relatively expensive. Given tighter margins and, by extension, less healthy balance sheets, many occupiers may not be able to commit to significant investment at this moment in time.

Developers are looking to develop more this year

Developers were the most likely group to say that business conditions had improved compared to last year. Likely as a direct response to this, developers look set to develop more space in 2026, with 36% planning to speculatively develop more space compared to 24% in 2024. Indeed, compared to the 38% of developers who planned to develop less space in 2024, only 32% plan to develop less this year. Savills has observed a very gradual decline in speculative development in 2025; this could lead to a reversal in this trend, even as the vacancy rate continues to rise.

What is notable is that there is some misalignment between developers and occupiers in terms of the size of the units planned for speculative development and the size of units occupiers, intending to lease, are considering. Of our sample, 25% of developers plan to spec mid-box units of 5,000–9,999 sq m, relative to the 65% of occupiers considering leasing space in this size band. Big-box (10,000–39,999 sq m) also sees a disparity between developers and occupiers (41% vs. 13%). Developers and occupiers are aligned on mega-box units of greater than 40,000 sq m (17% vs. 16%). At the other end of the market, just 5% of occupiers are considering urban logistics units (sub-5,000 sq m), while 17% of developers plan to spec this unit size.

Reflecting renewed optimism among developers, the market fundamentals that shifted in 2024 appear to have reverted to more typical patterns. Once again, a lack of viable development sites is seen as the biggest challenge, followed by the length of the planning process, which topped the list in 2025. Notably, while site scarcity has regained the top spot, it’s less universal than in 2023, when 95% of developers cited it as a concern; this year, 79% consider it Very Important or Important.

Much like occupiers, power remains a key issue for developers, the third highest ranked, with 62% of responses noting it as Very Important or Important. In line with occupiers’ requirements for greater building heights, developers noted greater eaves height as the fourth most critical issue. Meanwhile, occupiers requiring lease flexibility and increased floor loading remain the least critical issues for developers.

Investors are more positive, but focused on core markets

Investors remain more optimistic about investment volumes this year, with 56% of investors expecting investment volumes to grow in the next twelve months, up from 51% a year earlier, and only 8% expecting a decline, down from 9% last year. This reflects the 46% of investors who believe that market conditions are more favourable than they were twelve months ago. The number of investors willing to consider funding speculative development in the next twelve months has remained stable at just over half of respondents (52%).

Investor expectations of yields for the end of next year have coalesced on 4.5–5% (65% up from 54% in 2024). A further 18% are less bullish, expecting yields to rise by 5–6%, while 16% expect yields to begin approaching pandemic-era levels, falling to between 4% and 4.5%. In comparison to 2024, this suggests tightening bid-ask spread in the near future as investors have become increasingly aligned on their views of the market.

Investor demand remains strongest for the core locations in Europe. Germany has maintained its position of dominance with 67% of investors, followed by the Netherlands (57%), France (56%), and Spain (54%).

Investors were less willing to consider any given location than the previous year, with each country having an average 5% less interest from investors. The greatest changes were the Czech Republic (-18pp), Poland (-12pp), and Denmark (+12pp).

In terms of targeted asset types, 73% of respondents plan to target prime logistics in the next twelve months, and 68% plan to target last-mile/urban logistics. Despite significant anecdotal interest in multi-let assets in the first half of H1 in some markets, only 49% of investors were considering these asset types.

Notably, when asked about the biggest factors impacting the investment market at the moment, 77% of investors noted occupier market conditions as the most important factor. Given the shift from a landlord-favourable market to a tenant-favourable market over the last two years, it feels somewhat paradoxical that investors are more optimistic about current market conditions than last year. A similar question emerges around economic growth (76%) and rental growth (65%). Do investors see a substantial change in macroeconomic and market fundamentals in the near future? Given their optimism about market conditions, investment volumes, and the self-fulfilling nature of expectations in real estate, are investors calling the bottom of the market?

Investors are looking ahead. Will occupiers catch up?

The survey highlights the current difference in the worldviews of investors, developers, and occupiers. As we previously noted in terms of business conditions, occupiers remain cautious – digesting macroeconomic shocks and regulatory shifts. This can be seen in how over half of occupiers have delayed expansion plans, while operational concerns, such as ESG and power concerns, have taken priority, slowing capex-heavy investments like robotics and automation.

Investors and, to a lesser extent, developers are taking a different approach – positioning themselves to take advantage of a rebound. Indeed, while occupiers are delaying expansion plans, 57% of investors expect investment volumes to grow next year, and 52% of investors are willing to fund speculative development.

This makes sense; the risk-reward profile for investors relies on timing, whereas occupiers clearly feel less need to preempt a recovery, instead focusing on weathering current conditions.

A similar pattern emerges when we consider the differences in what occupiers, investors, and developers consider the greatest potential game-changers.

Increased power requirements are considered the most important potential changes by developers and investors, while it’s only the fourth most important to occupiers. Potentially suggesting that while developers and investors have internalised power as an issue, occupiers are yet to do so. Occupiers are focused on regulatory and operational changes, while developers and investors tend to focus on structural and strategic shifts. A prime example of this is in the use of AI, where occupiers see it as one of the biggest potential game-changers, while developers see it as number eight.

This theme underscores a strategic inflection point: investors are betting on resilience and long-term fundamentals, while occupiers are still recalibrating. The next 12 to 18 months will be critical in determining whether this optimism is well-placed or premature.

Summary

Five key considerations

1. Occupier sentiment is better than expected: Despite the continued economic uncertainty, 40% of respondents said that business conditions were more favourable than they were six months ago. This compares to just 53% in last year's census. Considering the shocks to the market just prior to the survey, this is certainly positive. Notably, we picked up a mixed array of responses, with investors and developers tending to have a more positive view of current conditions.
2. More stringent ESG requirements is growing as an issue for occupiers: The most cited issue was ‘more stringent ESG targets/regulations’, which was considered important or very important by 88% of occupiers. EU regulations continue to be a moving target, with more regulations on the horizon. This has risen from 69% of occupiers in 2024, and we have seen retailers and manufacturers become much more conscious of this factor.
3. Occupiers are looking to streamline their operations: AI is considered a potential game-changer by 82% of occupiers for optimising warehouse operations. In the past twelve months, 36% of occupiers have invested in predictive optimisation and analytics technologies powered by AI. Looking ahead, 47% plan to invest in these tools over the next two years.
4. Developers plan to speculatively develop more this year: After a pause in 2024, when 24% of developers planned to develop more space, 36% indicated they planned to develop more in the next year, in 2026. Notably, the speculative development pipeline in the UK has contracted in the last six months. This could indicate that that trend will reverse in late 2025 and early 2026.
5. Investors are more optimistic but targeting core locations: Investors are optimistic about investment volumes, with 56% of investors expecting volumes to grow in the next twelve months, up from 51% in 2024. Germany remains the location of choice for 67% of investors, followed by the Netherlands (57%) and France (56%). On average, investors were less likely to consider any given location, which suggests their target locations are narrowing this year.

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